Back in Dec I called that the upcoming stock market rally would be a “Sucker Rally“, which would allow deeper pockets to off load their stock holdings. BlackRock’s Chief Equity Strategist Kate Moore called it a “Risk Rally” when she recently stated “A lot of the investors within BlackRock and around the street have been using the big rally in stocks as an opportunity to fade some risk, and rebalancing portfolios. I’d be hard pressed to come up with a segment of our clients that was buying aggressively into this risk rally,”.
Video is courtesy of the Sprott Media YouTube channel
The US Fed will be holding meetings for the next two days. They will continue to raise Interest Rates again this year. I’m just not sure if they will have a rate increase now or wait till later this year. The key excuse of raising Interest Rates is to fight Inflationary Pressure.
I have noted that Gasoline prices have stopped going down and IMHO have started to reverse back upwards. The price of fuel impacts the price of all goods sold, as those goods have to be transported. Raise the price of fuel and you trigger an increase in the Rate of Inflation. That theme was used last year to trigger Inflation Growth to help justify the increases in Internet Rates. It worked until it impacted the Stock Markets last December.
When Interest Rates are increased once more, that will imho trigger a Stock Market correction which will lead into a Major Recession. 2019 should see Stock Market and Economic changes of Historic Proportions.
Video is courtesy of the CNBC YouTube channel
From now till sometime in Feb or March of 2019 the US Stock Markets will Rally Back UP. May even just maybe make new Highs, though I doubt it.
Then the US Central Bank will raise Interest Rates one more time. Within 30 days of the Interest Rate Hike will come a Major Stock Market Correction – aka CRASH.
Beware the Ides of March 2019.
Stock prices will continue their spiral downwards. Later in 2019 a deep Recession will start in Europe and North America. By 2020 it will have spread around the Globe.
Businesses will be unable to renew their massive debt, same for Retailers. Both groups will see a rise in Bank Loan Defaults. Many will close their doors forever. Job losses will mount.
Chart courtesy of the Online Stock Trading Guide
Homeowners will walk away from their homes, as home prices fall in North America. Their mortgage would be way higher than the value of the house. Mortgage Foreclosures will rise in 2019.
The Recession will deepen into a World Wide Depression along the lines of 1930s.
I would call a “40% Stock Market Correction“, a pretty major “Stock Market Crash“.
That could be followed by a Recession, due to rising Interest Rates.
Scott Minerd has warned that the Stock Market is on a “Collision Course with Disaster“.
Video is couretsy of the CNBC YouTube channel.
They have dropped the price of Crude Oil to help bolster Western economies. Had the price of Oil not dropped, then IMHO we would have had a major Stock market Crash last year – 1929 style. Thankfully we have not “Yet” had a Stock Market Crash.
The US employment figures are a figment of the Government’s Imagination. There are record numbers of Americans (over 94 Million) who “stopped” looking for work. Why? Because they could NOT find any….
A new article posted by USA Today, goes into some detail of the stocks which fell in price.
I just hope that they can continue to drop the price of Crude Oil. That is the only thing which in my opinion is propping everything up.
Posted by: Vincent Banial
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