US Jobless Report for Mar 2015 could be giving a Heads Up to a potential Stock Market Crash later in 2015
Click on this line to view the Mar 2015 Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the US Department of labor.
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 126,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today”.
This is a key figure. Over the past year the average “nonfarm payroll employment” had increased at over 250,000 per month In March 2015 that figure dropped to 126,000 IMHO such a drop is significant major red flag for the Equity markets. This is the first time in a bit over one year that the number was below 200,000 Again, IMHO a red flag for the Equity Markets going forward
There is more bad news. January and February numbers were both revised downward by about 10 percent.
“The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised from +239,000 to +201,000, and the change for February was revised from +295,000 to +264,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 69,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 197,000 per month. “
Retail Sector jobs did grow in march. Big Deal. Retail jobs are low paying (often at Minimum Wage) and often do not have a 40 hour work week. They are “not” the engine to drive economic growth.
“In March, employment in retail trade continued to trend up (+26,000), in line with its prior 12-month average gain. Within retail trade, general merchandise stores added 11,000 jobs in March.”
The possibility of an Interest Rate hike in June, along with the weak report result do not IMHO bode well for the Equity Markets going forward.
Click on this line to view the CNBC post titled: “US added 126K jobs in March, vs 245K expected; jobless rate stays at 5.5%”
Might I suggest to double-check your Sell Stops. I have a suspicion that the markets could take a tumble later this year.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s “GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 0.1 percent on April 2, up from 0.0 percent on April 1.”.
Essentially the US Economy is no longer growing. The GDPNow rate had been falling since about the end of January 2015. Interesting side note is that while the GPDNow rate was heading to Zero forecast economic growth, US Stocks markets were setting new Highs.
Posted by: Vincent Banial for Uniquely Toronto
Disclaimer: The above is not meant as Financial or Investment advice. I am not a registered Financial or Investment advisor. Do your own Due Diligence. Always seek out the advice from your own Financial and Investment Professionals before placing any bets at the Financial Markets casinos called the Stock Market. You can lose money, possibly all of it, when buying and selling or trading stocks. The above post is for entertainment purposes only.