Category: Recession 2019

IMF World Economic Outlook projects a slowdown in growth in 2019 for 70 percent of the world economy

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released a new World Economic Outlook (WEO) which projects a slowdown in growth in 2019 for 70 percent of the world economy.

Click on this link to vist the IMF website to read their IMFBLOG post titled: “The Global Economy: A Delicate Moment“.

Posted by Vincent Banial

Inverted Yield Curve indicates that a Recession is coming!

An Inverted Yield Curve has historically been a reliable signal that a Recession is on its way! You get an Inverted Yield Curve when short-term yields are higher than longer-term yields.

The Dow Index dropped over 460 points today Fri Mar 22 2019. The S&P Index fell 1.9% and the Nasdaq dropped 2.5%. The Russell 200 fell over 3.6%.

Click on this link to visit the Nasdaq website and view the Stock Market Indices.

Video is courtesy of The Money GPS YouTube channel

A drop in the Stock Markets on a Friday
is NOT A GOOD THING!

Why?

People will have Sat and Sun to get worried. When Investors get worried they tend to Sell. I believe that Monday Mar 25 will be another down day in the Stock Markets.

Next Monday’s drops should be greater than today’s drops.

Click on this link to visit the CNBC website to read their news article titled “Dow drops more than 450 points, S&P 500 posts worst day since January amid global growth worries“.

Posted by: Vincent Banial

US Fed announced no Interest Hikes in 2019

In 2018, the US Fed had stated that there would be up to three Interest Rate hikes in 2019.  Today the Fed announced that there will not be any Interest rate Hikes in 2019. Yes, they seem to have reversed course.

IMHO I believe this is smoke and mirrors. The Price of Oil has had a price breakout upwards. Expect to pay MORE for fuel. That will spark Inflation again, just as it had last year. When the Rate of Inflation goes up, then the US Fed will raise Interest Rates.

Video is courtesy of the TheoTrade, LLC YouTube channel

Posted by: Vincent Banial

IMHO the Stock Market party is almost over

Back in Dec I called that the upcoming stock market rally would be a “Sucker Rally“, which would allow deeper pockets to off load their stock holdings. BlackRock’s Chief Equity Strategist Kate Moore called it a “Risk Rally” when she recently stated “A lot of the investors within BlackRock and around the street have been using the big rally in stocks as an opportunity to fade some risk, and rebalancing portfolios. I’d be hard pressed to come up with a segment of our clients that was buying aggressively into this risk rally,”.

Video is courtesy of the Sprott Media YouTube channel

The US Fed will be holding meetings for the next two days. They will continue to raise Interest Rates again this year. I’m just not sure if they will have a rate increase now or wait till later this year. The key excuse of raising Interest Rates is to fight Inflationary Pressure.

I have noted that Gasoline prices have stopped going down and IMHO have started to reverse back upwards. The price of fuel impacts the price of all goods sold, as those goods have to be transported. Raise the price of fuel and you trigger an increase in the Rate of Inflation. That theme was used last year to trigger Inflation Growth to help justify the increases in Internet Rates. It worked until it impacted the Stock Markets last December.

When Interest Rates are increased once more, that will imho trigger a Stock Market correction which will lead into a Major Recession. 2019 should see Stock Market and Economic changes of Historic Proportions.

Video is courtesy of the CNBC YouTube channel

Is the US Economy LOSING STEAM?

The coming Economic Crash will Dwarf the 2008 Financial Crisis

The coming Economic Crash will Dwarf the 2008 Financial Crisis.

 

Video is courtesy of the Evie Courtlandt YouTube Channel

 

Video is courtesy of the RonPaulLibertyReport YouTube channel

 

Click on this link to visit Gerald Celente’s Trend Research Institute website.

In 2018, China’s Economy grew only 6.6%. That is the lowest growth rate in 28 years.

In Guangzhou, China’ major Export hub and 4th largest city the economy grew 6.5%. The forecast had been for 7.5% growth.

Click on this link to visit the South China Morning Post website to read their article titled: “China set to report slowest economic growth for 28 years“.

Click on this line to visit the China Economic Review website to read their article titled: “Guangzhou misses growth forecast as trade war bites“.

IMHO the slowdown in China’s economy is not related to the supposed Trade War with the USA. I believe that it is related to the wordwide slowdown of the major economies. For example Germany just missed being “officially’ in a Recession.

Video is courtesy of the Fox News TV YouTube Channel

2019 has only just started, but already the signs are showing up that Global Economies are headed towards Recession in 2019.

Global Ecomony headed for Recession in 2019 by John Kemp

The OECD composite leading indicator has a near perfect record of giving advance warning of Recession lurking just around the corner.

 

Please click on this link to view chart of the OECD composite leading indicator https://data.oecd.org/chart/5rwx

 

Since 1970, when the OECD composite leading indicator had dropped below the 99.43 level a Recession followed in 1970, 1974, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001 and 2008.

 

Another thing you will note that there is almost a cyclical component to Recessions. It was 10 years between 1970 and 1980. It was 11 years between 1980 and 1991. Another 11 years between 1991 and 2001. Then 7 years between 2001 and 2008. Add 11 years to 2008 and your get 2019. Surprise!!!!

 

Click on this link to view John Kemp’s charts related to his article: https://tmsnrt.rs/2HfQKH5

 

Click on this link to visit the Thomson Reuters Foundation News website to read John Kemp’s article titled: “Global economy is headed for recession: Kemp“.

 

In the United States and Germany, the tentative signs of easing growth momentum, that were flagged in December’s assessment, have been confirmed with easing growth momentum remaining the assessment for Canada, the United Kingdom and the euro area as a whole, including France and Italy.