An Inverted Yield Curve has historically been a reliable signal that a Recession is on its way! You get an Inverted Yield Curve when short-term yields are higher than longer-term yields.
The Dow Index dropped over 460 points today Fri Mar 22 2019. The S&P Index fell 1.9% and the Nasdaq dropped 2.5%. The Russell 200 fell over 3.6%.
Click on this link to visit the Nasdaq website and view the Stock Market Indices.
Video is courtesy of The Money GPS YouTube channel
A drop in the Stock Markets on a Friday
is NOT A GOOD THING!
People will have Sat and Sun to get worried. When Investors get worried they tend to Sell. I believe that Monday Mar 25 will be another down day in the Stock Markets.
Next Monday’s drops should be greater than today’s drops.
Posted by: Vincent Banial
In 2018, the US Fed had stated that there would be up to three Interest Rate hikes in 2019. Today the Fed announced that there will not be any Interest rate Hikes in 2019. Yes, they seem to have reversed course.
IMHO I believe this is smoke and mirrors. The Price of Oil has had a price breakout upwards. Expect to pay MORE for fuel. That will spark Inflation again, just as it had last year. When the Rate of Inflation goes up, then the US Fed will raise Interest Rates.
Video is courtesy of the TheoTrade, LLC YouTube channel
Posted by: Vincent Banial
Back in Dec I called that the upcoming stock market rally would be a “Sucker Rally“, which would allow deeper pockets to off load their stock holdings. BlackRock’s Chief Equity Strategist Kate Moore called it a “Risk Rally” when she recently stated “A lot of the investors within BlackRock and around the street have been using the big rally in stocks as an opportunity to fade some risk, and rebalancing portfolios. I’d be hard pressed to come up with a segment of our clients that was buying aggressively into this risk rally,”.
Video is courtesy of the Sprott Media YouTube channel
The US Fed will be holding meetings for the next two days. They will continue to raise Interest Rates again this year. I’m just not sure if they will have a rate increase now or wait till later this year. The key excuse of raising Interest Rates is to fight Inflationary Pressure.
I have noted that Gasoline prices have stopped going down and IMHO have started to reverse back upwards. The price of fuel impacts the price of all goods sold, as those goods have to be transported. Raise the price of fuel and you trigger an increase in the Rate of Inflation. That theme was used last year to trigger Inflation Growth to help justify the increases in Internet Rates. It worked until it impacted the Stock Markets last December.
When Interest Rates are increased once more, that will imho trigger a Stock Market correction which will lead into a Major Recession. 2019 should see Stock Market and Economic changes of Historic Proportions.
Video is courtesy of the CNBC YouTube channel
Beware the Ides of March.
Click on this link to visit the Reuters website to read their article titled “
Video courtesy of the Wochit News YouTube channel
The coming Economic Crash will Dwarf the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Video is courtesy of the Evie Courtlandt YouTube Channel
Video is courtesy of the RonPaulLibertyReport YouTube channel
Click on this link to visit Gerald Celente’s Trend Research Institute website.
In Guangzhou, China’ major Export hub and 4th largest city the economy grew 6.5%. The forecast had been for 7.5% growth.
Click on this link to visit the South China Morning Post website to read their article titled: “China set to report slowest economic growth for 28 years“.
Click on this line to visit the China Economic Review website to read their article titled: “Guangzhou misses growth forecast as trade war bites“.
IMHO the slowdown in China’s economy is not related to the supposed Trade War with the USA. I believe that it is related to the wordwide slowdown of the major economies. For example Germany just missed being “officially’ in a Recession.
Video is courtesy of the Fox News TV YouTube Channel
2019 has only just started, but already the signs are showing up that Global Economies are headed towards Recession in 2019.
The OECD composite leading indicator has a near perfect record of giving advance warning of Recession lurking just around the corner.
Please click on this link to view chart of the OECD composite leading indicator https://data.oecd.org/chart/5rwx
Since 1970, when the OECD composite leading indicator had dropped below the 99.43 level a Recession followed in 1970, 1974, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001 and 2008.
Another thing you will note that there is almost a cyclical component to Recessions. It was 10 years between 1970 and 1980. It was 11 years between 1980 and 1991. Another 11 years between 1991 and 2001. Then 7 years between 2001 and 2008. Add 11 years to 2008 and your get 2019. Surprise!!!!
Click on this link to view John Kemp’s charts related to his article: https://tmsnrt.rs/2HfQKH5
Click on this link to visit the Thomson Reuters Foundation News website to read John Kemp’s article titled: “Global economy is headed for recession: Kemp“.
In the United States and Germany, the tentative signs of easing growth momentum, that were flagged in December’s assessment, have been confirmed with easing growth momentum remaining the assessment for Canada, the United Kingdom and the euro area as a whole, including France and Italy.
From now till sometime in Feb or March of 2019 the US Stock Markets will Rally Back UP. May even just maybe make new Highs, though I doubt it.
Then the US Central Bank will raise Interest Rates one more time. Within 30 days of the Interest Rate Hike will come a Major Stock Market Correction – aka CRASH.
Beware the Ides of March 2019.
Stock prices will continue their spiral downwards. Later in 2019 a deep Recession will start in Europe and North America. By 2020 it will have spread around the Globe.
Businesses will be unable to renew their massive debt, same for Retailers. Both groups will see a rise in Bank Loan Defaults. Many will close their doors forever. Job losses will mount.
Chart courtesy of the Online Stock Trading Guide
Homeowners will walk away from their homes, as home prices fall in North America. Their mortgage would be way higher than the value of the house. Mortgage Foreclosures will rise in 2019.
The Recession will deepen into a World Wide Depression along the lines of 1930s.
I would call a “40% Stock Market Correction“, a pretty major “Stock Market Crash“.
That could be followed by a Recession, due to rising Interest Rates.
Scott Minerd has warned that the Stock Market is on a “Collision Course with Disaster“.
Video is couretsy of the CNBC YouTube channel.