The OECD composite leading indicator has a near perfect record of giving advance warning of Recession lurking just around the corner.
Please click on this link to view chart of the OECD composite leading indicator https://data.oecd.org/chart/5rwx
Since 1970, when the OECD composite leading indicator had dropped below the 99.43 level a Recession followed in 1970, 1974, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001 and 2008.
Another thing you will note that there is almost a cyclical component to Recessions. It was 10 years between 1970 and 1980. It was 11 years between 1980 and 1991. Another 11 years between 1991 and 2001. Then 7 years between 2001 and 2008. Add 11 years to 2008 and your get 2019. Surprise!!!!
Click on this link to view John Kemp’s charts related to his article: https://tmsnrt.rs/2HfQKH5
Click on this link to visit the Thomson Reuters Foundation News website to read John Kemp’s article titled: “Global economy is headed for recession: Kemp“.
In the United States and Germany, the tentative signs of easing growth momentum, that were flagged in December’s assessment, have been confirmed with easing growth momentum remaining the assessment for Canada, the United Kingdom and the euro area as a whole, including France and Italy.
From now till sometime in Feb or March of 2019 the US Stock Markets will Rally Back UP. May even just maybe make new Highs, though I doubt it.
Then the US Central Bank will raise Interest Rates one more time. Within 30 days of the Interest Rate Hike will come a Major Stock Market Correction – aka CRASH.
Beware the Ides of March 2019.
Stock prices will continue their spiral downwards. Later in 2019 a deep Recession will start in Europe and North America. By 2020 it will have spread around the Globe.
Businesses will be unable to renew their massive debt, same for Retailers. Both groups will see a rise in Bank Loan Defaults. Many will close their doors forever. Job losses will mount.
Chart courtesy of the Online Stock Trading Guide
Homeowners will walk away from their homes, as home prices fall in North America. Their mortgage would be way higher than the value of the house. Mortgage Foreclosures will rise in 2019.
The Recession will deepen into a World Wide Depression along the lines of 1930s.
I would call a “40% Stock Market Correction“, a pretty major “Stock Market Crash“.
That could be followed by a Recession, due to rising Interest Rates.
Scott Minerd has warned that the Stock Market is on a “Collision Course with Disaster“.
Video is couretsy of the CNBC YouTube channel.