The OECD composite leading indicator has a near perfect record of giving advance warning of Recession lurking just around the corner.
Please click on this link to view chart of the OECD composite leading indicator https://data.oecd.org/chart/5rwx
Since 1970, when the OECD composite leading indicator had dropped below the 99.43 level a Recession followed in 1970, 1974, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001 and 2008.
Another thing you will note that there is almost a cyclical component to Recessions. It was 10 years between 1970 and 1980. It was 11 years between 1980 and 1991. Another 11 years between 1991 and 2001. Then 7 years between 2001 and 2008. Add 11 years to 2008 and your get 2019. Surprise!!!!
Click on this link to view John Kemp’s charts related to his article: https://tmsnrt.rs/2HfQKH5
Click on this link to visit the Thomson Reuters Foundation News website to read John Kemp’s article titled: “Global economy is headed for recession: Kemp“.
In the United States and Germany, the tentative signs of easing growth momentum, that were flagged in December’s assessment, have been confirmed with easing growth momentum remaining the assessment for Canada, the United Kingdom and the euro area as a whole, including France and Italy.